They did it in Utah, Texas, Kentucky, Delaware, and Indiana but the Tea Party isn't taking over the Republican Party in Tennessee, and it isn't going to beat longtime Republican Sen. Lamar Alexander, no matter how much anti-establishment bravado it gins up.

And his lead over primary opponent and Tea Party fave Joe Carr isn't by an “edge,” as Politico reported. It's huge and likely insurmountable.

According to a memo from established polling expert Whit Ayres, president of North Star Opinion Research, the folksy Alexander holds a 70-percent-to-11-percent lead in conservative East Tennessee, where half the GOP primary vote comes from. Among “very conservatives,” he leads Carr 53 percent to 23 percent. In a head-to-head matchup, he leads three to one. Among Republicans he leads 69 percent to 14 percent.

And his favorability in the state he once governed? Among primary voters, it is 67 percent approve, 26 percent disapprove…

 “This campaign looks essentially the same today as it did last August,” wrote Ayres. “Given Senator Alexander’s universal name recognition, it will be very difficult for his opponents to move these numbers. Alexander remains in a very strong position to win the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.”

Tea Party groups believe they still have a chance, but it doesn't look good. Carr, for example, hasn't raised in his Senate race what he did in his recent House race.