Cook Political Report:  So are Alexander and Roberts going to be the next Graham or the next Cantor?

Just minutes after House Majority Leader Eric Cantor lost his Republican primary contest on Tuesday night, emails started arriving claiming that the Tea Party had spoken, and that Republican Senator Cochran/Alexander/Roberts would be the next Eric Cantor. Some in the media have also picked up on this theme. But, is there really another Eric Cantor out there, or are incumbents more likely to emulate South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham, who easily won his party's nomination on Tuesday?

First, as House Editor David Wasserman wrote on primary night, multiple factors contributed to Cantor's loss, including a poorly executed campaign, an absent incumbent, and immigration. Interestingly enough, the Tea Party was not one of those factors since no national Tea Party organization actually endorsed economics professor David Brat. On election night, Brat would not label himself a Tea Party candidate in an interview with POLITICO. While he did get some attention on several conservative talk radio programs, there wasn't the kind of all-out effort by the Tea Party that we have seen in Senate primaries. Of course, that hasn't stopped the Tea Party from taking credit for Brat's victory or gotten in the way of Tea Party-endorsed Senate primary candidates from claiming that they will be the next David Brat.

The other story on primary night - one that got lost in the news of Cantor's loss - was Sen. Lindsey Graham's convincing win in the South Carolina Republican primary. Graham has been a target of the Tea Party since any formal Tea Party organization existed. In the 2008 primary, a candidate with little money and even less name identification managed to get 32 percent of the vote against Graham in the primary.

And, Graham failed to carry Greenville County, a GOP "upcountry" stronghold. Graham knew that he would be a target this year, and started preparing for a primary not long after 2008.

Part of what makes Graham successful is that for every position he takes that angers conservatives, such as his views on immigration, he then seems to focus on issues that appeal to Tea Party activists and other conservatives, like Benghazi and the Bergdahl prisoner swap. In others words, Graham may drive up the center at times, but then he takes a hard right turn. This gives Graham plenty of ammunition to answer charges that he is not conservative enough. Of course, this did not stop nine local Republican Party organizations from censuring him this cycle alone.

Graham's other strengths are that he is a prolific fundraiser and runs solid campaigns. As of the pre-primary FEC report, Graham had raised just over $12 million for the cycle. He spends a great deal of time in the state, hitting local events and tending to his organization. He also doesn't make any enemies in the state's congressional delegation, thus eliminating potential primary opponents. This campaign has been no different. Whether intimidated by Graham's war chest or simply not wanting to take the risk of running against him, conservatives and the Tea Party were unable to get a first-tier candidate to challenge Graham in the primary. As a result, he faced six little known opponents. National Tea Party groups did not unite behind a candidate, and local Tea Party groups were split among several candidates.

Finally, Graham ran a positive campaign. He aired lots of television ads that focused on his accomplishments or on what he believes. He didn't attack his opponents, and even debated them once before the primary, something he could have easily avoided. The biggest concern was whether such a crowded field would make it difficult for Graham to get the 50 percent of the vote he needed to avoid a run-off. He easily cleared that hurdle, winning the nomination with 56 percent; his closest opponent took 15 percent. And, unlike 2008, Graham even carried Greenville County.

There is one Republican incumbent who faces a run-off, and two more with primary challenges: Sens. Thad Cochran in Mississippi, Lamar Alexander in Tennessee, and Pat Roberts in Kansas. Since Mississippi voters go to the polls in 11 days, let's take Cochran's race off the table. Regardless of the outcome, that cake is baked and neither Cantor's loss nor Graham's win does anything to change the trajectory of the race. Of course, state Sen. Chris McDaniel, Cochran's opponent, was quick to compare himself to Brat.

ALEXANDER: In both circumstance and style, Tennessee Sen. Lamar Alexander finds himself in a position that more closely resembles Graham's. Conservatives are always eager to take him on, yet they have trouble convincing a first-tier candidate to get into a primary contest. Alexander did not face a primary challenge in 2008, but Tea Party activists promised to wage a competitive primary fight this year. They were not able to recruit a first-tier challenger into the race, resulting in a field of eight opponents. The most active is state Rep. Joe Carr. Carr was quick to put out a statement on primary night that read in part, "From Virginia to Mississippi, a transformational change is underway that is being led by a true grassroots movement." He followed that up the next days with a fundraising email that was titled "Lamar, You're Next!" But, Alexander isn't providing Carr with the kind of opening that Cantor gave Brat.

The one similarity Carr and Brat share is that national Tea Party groups haven't embraced Carr's candidacy.

 Like Graham, Alexander runs solid campaigns that take nothing for granted. More important, he spends a lot of time in Tennessee. As of March 31, he had raised nearly $6 million for the cycle and had just over $3.1 million in the bank. By contrast, Carr had $466,823 in the bank and a debt of almost $20,000. Alexander did some early television ads, largely as a show of strength while the Tea Party was trying to recruit a challenger. He is likely to go back on the air in the weeks leading up to the primary.

 Polling also puts Alexander is solid shape. The most recent polls available were conducted for Alexander by Whit Ayres at North Star Opinion Research. Ayres has a great deal of experience polling both in Tennessee and in Republican primaries, and has an admirable track record. The latest poll was taken May 12-14 of 600 likely Republican primary voters, and showed Alexander ahead of Carr by a whopping 42 points, 56 percent to 14 percent. This is not surprising given that 67 percent said that they had never heard of Carr. Alexander gets strong job approval numbers from Republicans; 66-percent approve to 28 percent. Among those who described themselves as very conservative, his job ratings were 62 percent to 33 percent, and among those who identified themselves as evangelical Christians, they were 65 percent to 27 percent.

The primary is August 7 (yes, that's a Thursday). Unless something major occurs, Alexander looks like a very safe bet in the primary.